Tag Archives: monte carlo


fear-color-tby John Jonelis

“Oh, you’re an angel investor! Isn’t that risky?”  I hear such drivel all the time.  Are people afraid of outsized returns?  Or perhaps they don’t understand risk, don’t know how to measure it, or how to take control of it.  Yet all that is quite easily done and it’s a real charge to play the game using a Monte Carlo simulation (MC).  I’ll show what’s likely to happen if you follow three simple rules.  Then I’ll break one rule—just a little bit—and we’ll use the simulator to see what happens. Continue reading

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Figure 1The Angel Edge – John Jonelis

From the Journal of the Heartland Angels

Yes you can – you CAN measure the future!


According to the Kauffman Foundation, Angel Investors—on average—enjoy a capital gain on three out of ten deals. Out of those—on average—one is a huge blockbuster winner, three—on average—do marginally better than break-even, and the other six—on average—are complete losers. The winner is so huge that, according to Kauffman, Angels do very well indeed—that is, on average.

You may ask, “Hey Jonelis, why all the harping on the word average?” Because average is a fantasy. It doesn’t exist for you. It doesn’t exist for me. It’s a composite of the whole crowd. Continue reading

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